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投稿时间：2002-11-27
投稿时间：2002-11-27
中文摘要: 研究了灰色预测GM(1,1)模型及其几种改进模型在城市年用电量预测中的应用.以实际算例为基础,分析了几种模型的预测结果并进行比较.结果表明 :不同的改进模型预测的精度不同,所有改进后的模型比基本模型预测的精度高、误差小.并经不同的算例分析得出 :不同变化规律的负荷应该用不同的改进模型.
Abstract:This paper studies the application of the grey forecasting GM(1.1)and some improvedmodelsin annual electricity consumption forecasting in a city.Based on an example, comparing the forecastingresults of the models, it is found that different improved models have different forecasting results, and theresults of all improved models are more accurate than those of the primary model, different improvedmodels should be applied to the load of different varing patterns.
文章编号：20020203 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
引用文本：
张鑫,韦钢,周敏,等.灰色理论在城市年用电量预测中的应用[J].上海电力大学学报,2002,18(2):9-12.
ZHANG Xin,WEI Gang,ZHOU Min,et al.Application of the Grey Theory in ForecastingCity Annual Electricity Consumption[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2002,18(2):9-12.
张鑫,韦钢,周敏,等.灰色理论在城市年用电量预测中的应用[J].上海电力大学学报,2002,18(2):9-12.
ZHANG Xin,WEI Gang,ZHOU Min,et al.Application of the Grey Theory in ForecastingCity Annual Electricity Consumption[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2002,18(2):9-12.