Abstract:Residential Time-of-use(TOU) tariff is an important means to reducing the gap between the peak and the valley of electricity load, but its impact is difficult to be quantified.This paper sets up a residential electricity consumption inclination model by extracting data from the Shanghai Electricity Sales Marketing Database including three typical residential districts which represent high, middle, low-end consumers.The mathematic model contains factors such as percentage of valley quantity taking up all-day quantity of electricity consumption, increase in valley quantity, increase in peak quantity and increase in electricity charge.It is found that TOU tariff policy has increased residential electricity consumption.Most residents are willing to consume more valley electricity, and the effect of valley filling is comparatively obvious.