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投稿时间:2021-01-06
投稿时间:2021-01-06
中文摘要: 基于电力产业创新网络中能源转型的分析框架,从制度、经济、技术、行为4个层面对社会网络复杂系统中的网络密度、网络规模以及小世界性等概念进行界定,提出了能源转型路径演化的3条假设。选取2010—2019年电力产业创新网络的相关数据,采用ADF检验和协整检验等时间序列分析法,构建了误差修正模型,研究了中国能源转型的路径依赖与路径突破。结果表明:现有的技术创新网络密度巩固了中国电力工业的路径依赖性;目前中国电力产业创新网络规模对路径突破具有促进作用,但小世界性在一定程度上阻碍了路径突破;中国目前的技术创新与能源转型是脱节的,技术创新仍未达到政府的期望。
Abstract:Based on the analysis framework of energy transition in power industry innovation network,this paper defines the network density,the network scale and the small world within the Social Network-Complex System from four aspects of institution,economics,technology as well as behavior,and puts forward three hypotheses for the energy transition path evolution.Based on the data of power industry innovation network from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses time series analysis methods,such as ADF test,co-integration test and error correction model,to study path dependence and path breakthrough of China’s energy transition.The results show that the existing network density of technological innovation consolidates the path dependence of China’s power industry.The current network scale of the power industry innovation in China can play an important role in promoting the path breakthrough,but the Small World is hindering the path breakthrough to some degree.At least for now,the technological innovation in China is seriously out of touch with China’s energy transition,which fails to live up to the expectations of the Chinese Government.
keywords: energy transition path-dependence path-breakthrough power industry innovation network time series analysis
文章编号:202202003 中图分类号:TM715;F423.3 文献标志码:
基金项目:上海市哲学社会科学规划基金(2018EJL001)。
作者 | 单位 | |
刘平阔 | 上海电力大学 经济与管理学院 | pingoforver@sina.com |
卢存禹 | 上海电力大学 经济与管理学院 |
引用文本:
刘平阔,卢存禹.基于电力产业创新网络的能源转型路径依赖与突破[J].上海电力大学学报,2022,38(2):119-127,143.
LIU Pingkuo,LU Cunyu.Path Dependence and Breakthrough of Energy Transition Based on the Innovation Network of Power Industry[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2022,38(2):119-127,143.
刘平阔,卢存禹.基于电力产业创新网络的能源转型路径依赖与突破[J].上海电力大学学报,2022,38(2):119-127,143.
LIU Pingkuo,LU Cunyu.Path Dependence and Breakthrough of Energy Transition Based on the Innovation Network of Power Industry[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2022,38(2):119-127,143.