基于协整理论和灰色系统理论的上海市电力需求预测

慈向阳; 黄志敏

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DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-4729.2014.05.019

Journal of ShangHai University of Electric Power :2014,30(5):477-481

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基于协整理论和灰色系统理论的上海市电力需求预测

慈向阳, 黄志敏

(上海电力学院经济与管理学院)

Forecasting Electric Power Demand in Shanghai Based on Co-integration and Grey System Theory

CI Xiangyang, HUANG Zhimin

(School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China)

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Received:September 12, 2014

中文摘要: 利用协整理论和灰色系统理论,对上海市1995~2012年的全社会用电量进行分析,然后通过方差倒数法对2014~2020年电力需求进行组合预测.结果表明,组合预测的平均相对误差为2.06%,拟合精度较高.

中文关键词: 协整理论误差修正模型灰色系统电力需求预测

Abstract:By using the theory of co-integration and grey system, electric power consumption from 1995 to 2012 of Shanghai is analyzed.Moreover, a new combination model built in the method of Variance Reciprocal Weighting is represented to predict Shanghai power demand from2014 to 2020.Research results show that the prediction is accurate, the average relative error is only 2.06%.

keywords: co-integration error correction model grey system power demand forecasting

文章编号：20140519 中图分类号： 文献标志码：

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Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
CI Xiangyang	School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China	cxy_1013@sina.co
HUANG Zhimin	School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
CI Xiangyang	School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China	cxy_1013@sina.co
HUANG Zhimin	School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China

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