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投稿时间：1995-05-17
投稿时间：1995-05-17
中文摘要: 本文针对电力系统负荷变化的不可控性和周期性,通过采用Census Ⅱ分解方法分析季节因子,与历史负荷相比较,得到一系列长期趋势项,然后用可调灰色模型对分离出的长期趋势项进行预测,并用二分法调整u,v的取值,使得误差最小.将预测出的季节因子与长期趋势项重新组合,就得到日用电量的预测结果,实例表明,本系统对于呈周期性变化的电力负荷具有较好的预测效果.
Abstract:In view of in-contrallability and periodicity of electric loads, the authors analyse electric loads by using "census Ⅱ " decomposition method and get a series of season factors and terms of load trend. Then the authors apply the adjustable grey model to forecast electric loads. A real example shows that the method is efficient.
keywords: grey model electric system load prediction
文章编号：19960107 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Shi Quansheng | Shanghai Institute of Electric Power |
| Yang Yuhong | Xinjiang Manasi Thermal Power Plant |
引用文本：
施泉生,杨予红.电力系统负荷预测的周期性可调灰色模型[J].上海电力大学学报,1996,12(1):42-47.
Shi Quansheng,Yang Yuhong.Periodical Adjustable Grey Model for Prediction of Electric Loads[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,1996,12(1):42-47.
施泉生,杨予红.电力系统负荷预测的周期性可调灰色模型[J].上海电力大学学报,1996,12(1):42-47.
Shi Quansheng,Yang Yuhong.Periodical Adjustable Grey Model for Prediction of Electric Loads[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,1996,12(1):42-47.