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投稿时间：2009-05-11
投稿时间：2009-05-11
中文摘要: 采用故障树理论,从系统的角度对输电线路倒塔事故的原因进行逐层分解,对倒塔事故的安全风险因素进行辨识.考虑到强风暴对电网事故故障树基本事件发生概率的取值具有一定的不确定性,将基本事件的发生概率作为模糊数进行处理,并对电网输电线路倒塔事故中间事件和顶事件模糊故障树进行分析计算.实例分析表明,基于模糊数的故障树分析方法对电网倒塔事故的安全风险分析是可行的,并具有一定的应用价值.
Abstract:This paper analyzes the fault causes by layer upon layer based on the systematology,and identifies the safety risk of the tower collapses.Given that the fault probability caused by the strong storm is undefined,this paper regards the probability of the basic event as fuzzy datum,and illustrates the whole analysis process of the safety risk of tower collapses based on the fault tree logic structure of intermediate and top events.The applied example shows that it is possible and applicable to use the fuzzy fault tree method in analyzing the safety risk of the tower collapse accidents of electric transmission line hierarchically.
keywords: fuzzy fault tree analysis method safety risk analysis strong storm effect tower collapse accident of electric transmission line
文章编号：20090617 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:上海社科基金项目(2008BZH004);上海市教委重点学科项目(J51302)
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 杨太华 | 上海电力学院 经济与管理学院, 上海 200090 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| YANG Tai-hua | School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China |
引用文本：
杨太华.基于模糊故障树的电网倒塔事故安全风险分析[J].上海电力大学学报,2009,25(6):589-592,602.
YANG Tai-hua.Safety Risk Analysis of Tower Collapses in Electric Transmission Line Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Method[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2009,25(6):589-592,602.
杨太华.基于模糊故障树的电网倒塔事故安全风险分析[J].上海电力大学学报,2009,25(6):589-592,602.
YANG Tai-hua.Safety Risk Analysis of Tower Collapses in Electric Transmission Line Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Method[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2009,25(6):589-592,602.