Abstract:A wind farm reliability model using Markov chain and sequential Monte Carlo multistage is proposed and a grid-connected reliability evaluation is carried out. Through the statistics of the historical operation data of the wind farm, the transfer rate between the active output states of the wind turbines is obtained with the Markov method. Then, the three states of normal, derating and fault that are easy to implement are proposed as the wind turbine fault model and the state probability and duration are obtained with the Markov method. The Sequential Monte Carlo method is used to multiply the wind turbine state and its duration. The proposed model is comprehensively simulated by the IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system, and the system reliability level under different wind power penetration rates is analyzed. The experimental results show that the constructed model can reflect the wind turbine output and reliability level at any time.