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投稿时间：2019-03-01
投稿时间：2019-03-01
中文摘要: 为保证核电站的安全经济运行，对核电站常规岛的主要热力设备——加热器进行了基于经济性能的状态预警及劣化趋势的研究。首先，建立基于加热器经济性能的状态综合评价模型，量化其经济状态的动态变化过程，将"异常"状态作为加热器经济性能的预警状态；然后，采用灰色预测和指数平滑的组合预测方法，对加热器经济性能的劣化趋势进行预测，以预估其经济状态转为"严重"的时间节点，排除潜在故障，提高检修效率，降低维修成本；最后，在核电仿真平台插入典型的积聚型故障实例进行了验证，结果证明了所作研究的可行性和有效性。
Abstract:In order to ensure the safe and economic operation of the nuclear power plant,the research on the status alarm and deterioration trend based on the economic performance of the main thermal equipment of the conventional island in the nuclear power plant is proposed.Firstly,by establishing a state comprehensive evaluation model based on economic performance of the heater,the dynamic process of the economic state is quantified,and the "abnormal" state is used as the early warning state of the economic performance of the heater.Then,by using the combination forecasting method of gray prediction and exponential smoothing,the deterioration trend of the economic performance of the heater is estimated to predict the time node whose economic state turns into "serious",to eliminate potential failures,improve maintenance efficiency,and reduce maintenance costs.Finally,a typical accumulation fault instance is inserted into the nuclear power simulation platform for verification.The validity and feasibility of the research are proved in the results.
文章编号：20195012 中图分类号：TM623 文献标志码：
基金项目:上海市电站自动化技术重点实验室项目（13DZ2273800）；上海市科学技术委员会地方能力建设项目（18020500900）；上海市自然科学基金（核电风险评估中不确定性推理与关联机制研究-19ZR1420700）。
| 作者 | 单位 | |
| 张皓 | 宝山钢铁股份有限公司 上海电力学院 | zhanghao@baosteel.com |
| 林斯韵 | 上海电力学院 上海市电站自动化技术重点实验室 | |
| 朱朋成 | 上海电力学院 上海市电站自动化技术重点实验室 |
引用文本：
张皓,林斯韵,朱朋成.基于热经济性偏差的常规岛加热器状态预警及劣化趋势预测[J].上海电力大学学报,2019,35(5):472-478.
ZHANG Hao,LIN Siyun,ZHU Pengcheng.Research on State Alarm and Deterioration Trend Prediction of Heater in Conventional Island Based on Thermal Economic Deviation[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2019,35(5):472-478.
张皓,林斯韵,朱朋成.基于热经济性偏差的常规岛加热器状态预警及劣化趋势预测[J].上海电力大学学报,2019,35(5):472-478.
ZHANG Hao,LIN Siyun,ZHU Pengcheng.Research on State Alarm and Deterioration Trend Prediction of Heater in Conventional Island Based on Thermal Economic Deviation[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power,2019,35(5):472-478.